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Scientists are predicting the future to save the forests. Here's how

Douglas fir seedlings at the U.S. Forest Service's Dorena Genetic Resource Center in Oregon. These seedlings are part of a research experiment to plant more climate resilient forests.
Hannah Chinn
/
NPR
Douglas fir seedlings at the U.S. Forest Service's Dorena Genetic Resource Center in Oregon. These seedlings are part of a research experiment to plant more climate resilient forests.

Forests are the lungs of our planet.

Not only do they absorb carbon dioxide and create oxygen, they also regulate temperature, absorb rainwater to help prevent flooding, and provide critical habitat for the majority of the world's land-based plant and animal species. They even affect the weather.

But due to land conversion for agriculture and road construction, timber harvesting, and increasing wildfires, the trees that make up our forests are increasingly endangered. That's why we need reforestation – replanting new forests to replace the old ones.

For the past century, the United States Forest Service (USFS) has helped to replant new forests and manage existing ones. But as the planet faces the ongoing threat of climate change, scientists areokay then i think its good to go developing new strategies for forest survival.

Planting... local?

For a long time, tree scientists followed a tried-and-true method for replanting forests: planting the seeds they found in the ground where they found them.

"We've learned that over many, many years in forestry that seeds have learned to adapt to their local situation," says Lisa Winn, former silviculturist and manager of the USFS's Dorena Genetic Resource Center. "Now, the climate is changing, right? So now we are looking at, is that seed even adapted to that spot anymore?"

Seedlings might face drier or more humid conditions. They might need to weather unprecedented heat waves and severe drought. For them, the future is unpredictable – and potentially dangerous.

Predicting the forest's future

That's where ENAMES, The Experimental Network for Assisted Migration and Establishment Silviculture, comes in. The project utilizes a USFS-created database called the Seedlot Selection Tool to try to predict, using a number of established models, what the future climate of a given forest location will be like. Will it be warmer? Drier? Will summer last longer, or will winter freezes be more intense? And which seeds will do well there?

And then, given the predictions, foresters plant a combination of seeds. Some that reflect the historic climate of the site. Some that reflect the current climate. Some that might do well in the future, say 30-50 years from now. And some that might be best adapted for the end of the century, 70-90 years away.

The trees range in species – incense cedar, Jeffrey pine, Ponderosa pine, sugar pine, and Western larch – and in location – the planting sites are all over Oregon and Washington.

"You're generally moving it from a climate that it was historically adapted to, that it evolved under, and then you're moving it to a climate that you think is going to exist in the future at a given location," Slesak says.

The project is still in its early stages, but Slesak is hopeful about its future. The U.S. Forest Service has maintained similar projects, like the Doug Fir Heredity Study, for over a century.

Some of the trees that were part of the original project, which was planted in 1912, are still standing.

If all goes well, some of the trees from ENAMES could grow well into the next century.

This episode was produced by Jessica Yung and edited by our showrunner, Rebecca Ramirez. Tyler Jones checked the facts. Jimmy Keeley was the audio engineer.

Copyright 2025 NPR

Hannah Chinn
Emily Kwong (she/her) is the reporter for NPR's daily science podcast, Short Wave. The podcast explores new discoveries, everyday mysteries and the science behind the headlines — all in about 10 minutes, Monday through Friday.
Rebecca Ramirez
Rebecca Ramirez (she/her) is the founding producer of NPR's daily science podcast, Short Wave. It's a meditation in how to be a Swiss Army Knife, in that it involves a little of everything — background research, finding and booking sources, interviewing guests, writing, cutting the tape, editing, scoring ... you get the idea.
Jessica Yung
Jessica (she/her) is a producer for the Short Wave. She got her start in radio as a producer at Gimlet's narrative technology podcast Reply All, working on stories about QAnon, video games, cryptic tweets, and more. For the past two years, she has taught podcast production to high schoolers at Harlem Children's Zone, where she guided her students through making personal pieces about topics like jumping the MTA turnstile and complicated relationships with parents. Before she came to radio, she worked in print media, through various jobs at literary magazines and book publishers.