Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have developed an experimental forecast to predict the timing and locations of harmful algal blooms in western Lake Erie.
Researchers said the forecast was created through a statistical model based on weekly data gathered from the lake since 2012.
They've been specifically monitoring for microcystins, a group of toxins produced by blue-green algae known as cyanobacteria. These toxins can pose health risks to people and pets, and require more treatments for public drinking water systems.
By combining the microcystin data with remote satellite sensing and a model to predict wind currents, the researchers have been able to detect when and where algal blooms will occur, as well as the levels of toxicity, to see if they exceed levels that would trigger public health advisories.
The forecast, which is not available to the public yet, would display a graphical representation of where an elevated risk of microcystin exposure is, up to five days in advance.
“Most of the time, people would be able to look at this forecast and be like, ‘okay, well, there's low risk, so it's no problem,’” Mark Rowe, one of the co-authors of the study, said. “But occasionally, there may be high-risk areas. Recreational users of Lake Erie who’d be out on the water, boating or fishing, or other activities, could look at this and potentially direct their activities to lower risk areas in the lake.”
Rowe said the forecast will also be important for public drinking water treatment systems that draw from Lake Erie.
“If they have some advance notice of particularly high levels of toxins near their intake, then they can be prepared to treat the water, and perhaps increase the frequency of testing,” he said.
Although the forecast is experimental for now, Rowe hopes that by 2027 it will be an operational public product helping people enjoy the Great Lakes.
“I think people value the Great Lakes as a resource,” he said. The forecast "can help people get the most out of the resource by directing their activities to our times and locations where the risk of toxin exposure would be less.”
