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Well, 2026 appears off to a frosty start and don’t forget this is the It’s Just Politics newsletter, not the weather report.
We spoke with both Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks (D-Grand Rapids) and House Speaker Matt Hall (R-Richland Township) recently and one of the things we learned in our conversations is, thus far in 2026, they have not spoken to each other.
What does this portend following 2025 – a year when a divided Legislature was late finishing the budget and the fights got personal? Now, we’re heading into the 2026 election season when pretty much every lever of power in Lansing is on the line and there will be an abbreviated timeframe to get things done before campaigns become the full-time focus.
“Certainly every election year, the first half of the year is the most productive,” Brinks told us on the podcast. “It becomes more difficult thereafter. That's true not just in Michigan, but in every state. So I'm hopeful that we will be able to have a productive conversation around the budget, that it will get done on time and delivered to the people of Michigan so that they know what to expect.”
But there is still that question of trust. We can talk about issues such as healthcare, affordable housing and energy costs from now til November (and we will!), but the rule of “Lansing math” says every deal in the Capitol comes down to 56, 20 and 1. Those are the numbers needed, respectively, in the House, the Senate and, obviously, the governor’s signature to enact anything into law.
Last year, the Legislature failed the Lansing math test in terms of getting the budget assignment in on time. And, as the old saw goes, you shouldn’t expect to keep doing the same thing and get different results.
But, in our conversation with Hall this week on the podcast, well, he played a lot of the hits from 2025, including the suggestion that Democrats in the Legislature (to whom he’s been downright caustic) should be cut out of the negotiations as he, as the top Republican in Lansing, bargains exclusively with Governor Gretchen Whitmer to cut a deal.
“So, you know, fortunately, there's a great leader of the Democrat party, Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and I'm the leader, kind of the default leader of the Republican Party in the Legislature as the Republican speaker,” he told us. “And, I think working with Governor Whitmer, who I have talked to recently, we can take on a lot of issues.”
(We have to wonder how Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, who is in the crowded field seeking the GOP gubernatorial nomination, feels about the prospect of joining Democratic leaders out in the cold under the Hall plan.)
The political stakes of policy fights and displays of legislative competence are high.
Hall is expecting to return next year as the GOP leader of a House majority, but that’s far from guaranteed.
The respected University of Virginia Center for Politics’ “Crystal Ball’s” first handicaps of the year for partisan control of state legislatures puts the Michigan House and Senate in its toss-up column.
As Crystal Ball aptly puts it: “In a 2026 midterm environment that is shaping up to have a blue tint, some of the most important battlegrounds in November are the state legislatures.”
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Have questions about Michigan politics? Or, just want to let us know what you want more of in this year’s election coverage? Take the IJP survey today!
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What we’re talking about at the dinner table
3rd party: Voters in Michigan’s open 35th Senate District will have more than just a Democrat and Republican to choose from in a “special election this May that could determine the balance of power in the state Senate,” WCMU’s Rick Brewer reports. That’s because, this past weekend, at their annual convention in Midland “delegates from the Libertarian Party of Michigan nominated Ali Sledz, a mom of three pursuing a master's degree from Midland. Sledz will appear on the May 5 ballot in the 35th District state Senate race alongside a to be determined Democrat and Republican. Much of the attention of this race in the coming weeks will likely be drawn away from the Libertarian Party’s long-shot bid to occupy a seat in Lansing, as a combined ten Republicans and Democrats prepare to duke it out in the upcoming Feb. 3 primary,” Brewer explains. Tune in next week to the IJP podcast when Brewer joins us to dive into the high-stakes race.
Get in line: Michigan Democrats want the state to be early in line for the 2028 presidential primaries. The party has submitted an application to hold an early-window contest that would give our battleground state outsized influence in shaping the Democratic presidential field. “Strategists say the order of states will heavily influence how the primary campaign unfolds — and who ultimately winds up as the face of the Democratic Party in 2028,” The New York Times reports. What are Michigan’s chances? “Michigan entered the early window in 2024, but critics see it as too likely to bring attention to the party’s factures over Israel,” the Times notes.
Your own poll: IJP newsletter readers know this election year is going to be unlike any other in recent Michigan history (with a plethora of open statewide seats, the entire state House and state Senate up for election and a choice to rewrite the state’s constitution) so, with that in mind, we want to hear from you! What do you want in Election 2026 coverage? Take a couple minutes (seriously, it’ll only take 2) and fill out the It’s Just Politics survey and let us know what you think!
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Yours in political nerdiness,
Rick Pluta & Zoe Clark
Co-hosts, It’s Just Politics
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IJP ON THE ROAD
Zoe was a panelist on this week’s Off the Record discussing a new House Oversight report on the Michigan State Police and new anti-John James for governor campaign ads.
She also joined Jeremy Hobson, host of The Middle, for an episode of The Follow Up discussing anxiety over ICE's aggressive tactics, especially in Minneapolis, the economy, the 2026 midterms and how politics are shaping up in Michigan.
