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Voters in Michigan’s 35th state Senate District head to the polls Tuesday for a primary election that’s been a year in the making. It’s a special election that could shape power in Lansing for the rest of this year and perhaps beyond. It will also be closely watched as an indicator of the electorate heading into the very consequential 2026 election season.
We present for your consideration two competing political science theses: one is “some data is better than no data” versus “bad data is worse than no data.” The outcome of the 35th Michigan Senate District race will definitely fall into one of those categories.
The stakes are already very high with the Democrats holding the slimmest of Senate majorities, so there’s a lot on the line policy-wise in the remaining months of this legislative session. And, in future elections, it is easier to defend a seat held by an incumbent than an open seat, so the political implications are big.
The backstory
The seat has been vacant since January 3, 2025, when then-state Senator Kristen McDonald Rivet left the Legislature to take her seat in the U.S. House. Michigan’s Constitution requires the governor to call a special election to fill a vacancy - it just doesn’t say when. Governor Gretchen Whitmer ultimately waited 238 days (!) to set the election, a delay that sparked sharp criticism from Republicans, a lawsuit, and even public pressure from within her own party.
“It was pretty much at the discretion of Governor Whitmer,” WCMU News Director Rick Brewer told us on this week’s podcast. Republicans accused the governor of delaying the election for political reasons, while Democrats, including Attorney General Dana Nessel, publicly urged her to move faster. By the time the dates were set, the delay itself had become part of the story.
The importance
The election matters because control of the state Senate is already razor-thin. Democrats hold a 19-18 majority, and the 35th District is a true swing seat. “That seat will really determine, can Governor Gretchen Whitmer fulfill a lot of the bills and promises she’s made,” Brewer said, noting that the narrower the majority, “the harder and harder it can become for bills to actually become law.” Negotiations are more complex and every lawmaker is potentially a free agent absent strong caucus discipline. Republicans control the state House, which adds to the stakes and the complexity of divided government.
The swing
The district’s geography helps explain why the race is so competitive. It includes much of Saginaw County. It’s what Brewer calls “the swing county in the swing state.” Since 1992, the county’s presidential vote has mirrored the statewide outcome. The district also includes Midland, a longtime GOP stronghold, and Bay County, which has trended more Democratic in recent elections. “This is very much a toss-up,” Brewer said.
The issues
Unsurprisingly, on the campaign trail, affordability is dominating the conversation in both the Democratic and Republican primaries and who is best positioned to win in the general. Brewer said nearly every candidate is talking about the cost of living. Republicans are emphasizing property tax reform, lowering the state income tax, and creating a more business-friendly climate. Democrats are also talking about cost of living, but also leaning into warnings about MAGA extremism, as well as education, especially literacy (Whitmer’s top priority for the balance of her time in office), as schools continue to address post-pandemic learning gaps.
The future
And before voters leave the polls next week, there’s one important thing to remember: this is only the special election.
The candidates who win Tuesday’s primary will advance to a general election in May to fill out the remainder of McDonald Rivet’s term through the end of 2026. But the seat will be back on the ballot again later this year, with another primary in August and a general election in November for a full four-year term beginning in 2027.
So yes, it’s a lot. And it’s only the beginning.
Looking for more information about Michigan’s 35th Senate District? Rick Brewer’s team at WCMU has you covered:
- Your guide to voting in the state Senate special election
- Meet the candidates vying for Michigan’s open state Senate seat
- A third choice: Libertarians choose candidate in race for Michigan’s open state Senate seat
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Have questions about Michigan politics? Or, just want to let us know what you want more of (less of?) in the newsletter? We always want to hear from you! Shoot us an email at politics@michiganpublic.org!
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What we’re talking about at the dinner table
Testify: Michigan’s two Democratic U.S. Senators say they want Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem to testify before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee next month. “The fatal shootings of two American citizens by federal immigration agents in Minneapolis has led to calls for Secretary Noem to resign or be removed. She is already set to testify before a different committee in March. But Michigan Senators Gary Peters and Elissa Slotkin want Noem in the witness chair for a Senate committee hearing February 12th. In a joint statement, Peters and Slotkin say Noem’s actions ‘have weakened the Department’s credibility, inflamed tensions, harmed public safety, and divided Americans,'” Michigan Public’s Steve Carmody reports.
GOP GOV addition: Businessman Perry Johnson announced this week he's jumping, once again, into the Republican primary for governor. Johnson says he’ll “campaign on government efficiency and fiscal discipline, including a ‘phased elimination’ of Michigan’s 4.25% income tax, which generates more than $13 billion in annual revenue for state government,” Bridge Michigan reports. “Johnson also ran for governor in 2022, when he spent more than $7 million of his own money but was among a handful of Republicans kept off the ballot due to invalid voter signatures on required nominating petitions. He also launched a long-shot bid for president in 2024 but eventually bowed out to endorse President Donald Trump. In announcing this year’s campaign, Johnson told Detroit News Editorial Page Editor Nolan Finley that he’s prepared to spend $9 million of his own money in the next 60 days.”
New SEN numbers: Meantime, in another 2026 marquee race, new polling shows state Senator Mallory McMorrow leading her fellow Democratic candidates in Michigan’s U.S. Senate primary. The survey finds “22% support… McMorrow, 17% U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, and 16% Physician Abdul El-Sayed. A plurality of voters (38%) are undecided ahead of the August primary” according to the findings. “The top three Democratic Senate candidates were tested in matchups against Republican candidate and former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers. In a race between McMorrow and Rogers, 46% support McMorrow and 43% Rogers; 12% are undecided. In a matchup between Stevens and Rogers, 47% support Stevens and 42% Rogers; 11% are undecided. Between El-Sayed and Rogers, 43% support each candidate; 15% are undecided.”
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Yours in political nerdiness,
Rick Pluta & Zoe Clark
Co-hosts, It’s Just Politics
