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We can be pretty certain that the 2026 election will turn on the economy. After all, it almost always does. Governor Gretchen Whitmer has acknowledged her “Fix The Damn Roads” mantra in 2018 was an economic message.
There are exceptions, of course. In the summer before the 2022 election, the U.S. Supreme Court pushed abortion rights to the front with the Dobbs decision. That (and a fortuitously timed reproductive rights amendment on the ballot) helped Michigan Democrats produce historic wins that swept the party into full control of the state Capitol for the first time in some forty years. Having cemented abortion rights into the Michigan Constitution, Democrats tried to make reproductive rights an issue again in 2024, but voters had moved on and the economy was again clearly top of mind as Donald Trump won Michigan and the GOP took control of the state House.
“Affordability” is the political watchword of 2026. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, seeking the Democratic nomination for governor, said this week she expects health care affordability to be “the defining issue” of the ‘26 campaign. We know that housing costs are a big concern. House Speaker Matt Hall (R-Richland Township) says a property tax overhaul is on his 2026 agenda. A nascent petition campaign would eliminate property taxes in Michigan.
We will get a sense of where Michigan’s economy is headed next week with the raft of projections presented ahead of the Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference. The state Treasurer and the top economists for the nonpartisan House and Senate fiscal agencies will get advice on the economic winds to determine how much revenue the state will have to spend in the coming fiscal year and if adjustments are required to the current state budget.
Democratic consultant Adrian Hemond told us on this week’s It’s Just Politics pod that he expects the budget to be all-consuming before lawmakers pretty much decamp to their districts to campaign until after the November elections.
“All the federal COVID money is gone, so the budget's going to be tighter,” he said. “We have a lawsuit about the cannabis tax that's helping to fund the new roads plan that's going on right now. That's going to frame some of this debate as well. And we have potential recession risk or a slowdown in consumer spending that's out there. And those economic stories that feed into the state budget, that's really going to call the tune that a lot of elected officials and candidates are going to dance to.”
We’ll also see the final state jobs numbers of 2025 in a couple of weeks. Michigan’s jobs picture has been a muddle recently with numbers that show small gains in the number of employed people more than offset by the number of people leaving the workforce.
“The truth is probably somewhere in the middle from these surveys and the middle is pretty flat growth for the state over the long term here,” Michigan Labor Market Information Director Wayne Rourke told Rick after the combined October/November jobs report came out this week.
The question going forward: what message is going to connect with voters and who will offer a measure of hope to quell their specific economic anxieties?
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Have questions about Michigan politics in 2026? Or, just want to let us know what you want more of (less of?) in the newsletter? We always want to hear from you! Shoot us an email at politics@michiganpublic.org!
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What we're talking about at the dinner table
Budget power: Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel stepped into a high-stakes budget fight this week, issuing a formal opinion that reverses $645 million in cuts made last month by the GOP-led House Appropriations Committee. Nessel said one legislative committee can’t unilaterally veto spending that was passed by both chambers and signed by the governor, calling the process unconstitutional and a violation of separation of powers. The cuts affected funding for prenatal and newborn programs, museums and symphonies, and Flint water crisis recovery. A state budget office analysis says the money is now immediately available to be spent. House Republicans say they plan to challenge the opinion in court, arguing the decision is politically motivated.
EV increase: Speaking of affordability, Michigan now has the highest electric and plug‑in hybrid vehicle fees in the country, Bridge Michigan reports. “Michigan’s roughly 122,000 electric and plug-in hybrid vehicle owners are in for some sticker shock the next time they renew their plates. Their annual vehicle registration fees have skyrocketed to the nation’s highest in 2026, the result of a road funding package passed last fall that had little financial impact on gas-powered vehicle owners. While critics of the EV fee hike call it an unfair tax on a user group that’s already paying more to maintain Michigan’s roughly 120,000 miles of paved public roadways, proponents contend it fairly charges EV drivers for their use of the roads.”
Line 5 legal fight: Governor Whitmer is appealing a federal court decision on the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline that runs through the Straits of Mackinac. “Last month, a federal judge ruled against the governor’s attempts to shut it down.The state had argued the pipeline is unsafe and poses an unacceptable environmental risk, and tried to invalidate the 1953 agreement that lets it operate. The state claimed breach of contract. But the court ruled federal policy supersedes the state’s concerns when it comes to interstate pipelines. The judge refused to put the federal case on pause while the matter played out in state courts. Now the governor has filed a notice of appeal. This would be the second time a question in this case will have gone before the 6th Circuit Court of Appeals,” Michigan Public Radio Networks’ Colin Jackson reports.
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Yours in political nerdiness,
Rick Pluta & Zoe Clark
Co-hosts, It’s Just Politics
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