The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's seasonal weather outlook for winter 2026-27 is here, and it suggests the current El Niño could have a significant impact on Michigan.
The NOAA predicts higher-than-normal temperatures across much of the northern United States in the months of December, January and February. That includes Michigan and the Great Lakes region, the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast.
Michigan in particular has a 50-60% chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures.
A warm, dry winter ahead?
The seasonal precipitation outlook also forecasts a potentially drier-than-normal winter for northern parts of Michigan.
Areas north of Grand Rapids, Flint and Lansing have at least a 33-40% chance of drier-than-normal weather, while parts of the Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Michigan have a 40-50% chance.
NOAA does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations.
Meanwhile, much of the southern United States is projected to have wetter-than-normal conditions this winter, especially parts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
“As we know from decades of observations, a very strong El Niño will likely bring a southward and eastward shift to the jet stream for the contiguous U.S., which tilts the odds toward stormier weather across the South,” said Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “While higher chances of rain and snow may bring relief to drought-afflicted areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides. Now is the time for communities and individuals to plan ahead for the upcoming winter.”
El Niño's potential impact
El Niño, a weather phenomenon with far-reaching effects caused by the warming of surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, has historically led to warmer, drier conditions in Michigan and other parts of the northern contiguous United States.
Officials warn, however, that this El Niño in particular, combined with the long-term warming trend, could lead to historic highs in global temperatures. Federal forecasters previously said this could be the strongest El Niño event on record.
This past August was Earth's hottest month on record, according to the European climate service Copernicus.
