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Welcome to our all-budget edition of the It’s Just Politics newsletter as we do an early dive through the shoals and shallows of the 2026 spending fights.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s team had not even rolled out her 2026-27 budget proposal this week before GOP House Speaker Matt Hall went public with some emphatic no-ways.
No on a new nicotine tax. No on an online gaming tax. No on a delivery service tax.
“There are going to be no tax increases in this budget,” he declared. He also refused to promise the budget will be done on time, saying that’s on Whitmer and the Democrats.
And this is before the Democratic governor delivers her State of the State address in two weeks, when she will presumably make her case for these plans that will cap her two terms as Michigan’s chief executive. No governor wants to ask for a tax hike or leave under the cloud of a budget crunch, but here we are.
This budget is built on projections agreed to last month by the House, Senate and Whitmer administration. It predicted pretty flat revenue growth heading into the new fiscal year that begins in October. The next Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference planned for May to update projections. If the economy takes a dive, that puts negotiations and all the political calculations surrounding them on a new track.
So, a few questions. What does this mean for Whitmer’s final year before she exits the stage? And does it foreshadow yet another deadlock and partial government shutdown in October? Also, (since this is the It’s Just Politics newsletter, after all) how will it affect this year’s elections and campaigns?
Well, there will be more pressure to get a budget done on time because it’s an election year. “Everybody wants this done and to get it done quickly,” veteran Lansing lobbyist Brad Williams told Rick this week. He said incumbents (especially those in swing districts) will want to get home to campaign and meet voters. And they will want to have some success stories to share.
A late budget doesn’t go into the “win” column.
Michigan’s fiscal year begins October 1, close to the early voting period. There is also a law that “requires” the budget to be wrapped up by July 1. There’s no hard penalty for missing the statutory deadline (as we saw last year), but many local governments have budget years that begin July 1, and it’s tough to sell yourself as fiscally responsible when your mayors and school boards are asking how much they can expect from the state.
Amanda Fisher, the state director of the GOP-leaning National Federation of Independent Businesses, said last year’s road deal that was part of the agreement that ended the budget standoff could signal a promising 2026.
“I’m hoping there was so much heavy lifting in the last session that this time should be a lot easier,” she said.
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Have questions about Michigan politics? Or, just want to let us know what you want more of (less of?) in the newsletter? We always want to hear from you! Shoot us an email at politics@michiganpublic.org!
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What we’re talking about at the dinner table
Independent pressure: The nonpartisan option on the November gubernatorial ballot could be a powerful incentive for an earlier-rather-than-later finalized budget. Former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is running as an independent candidate for governor, while Republicans and Democrats have yet to select nominees in August primaries. Every day leading up to and past that July 1 deadline without a budget is a gift to a candidate whose message is he’s the antidote to partisan dysfunction.
Fee for all: Whitmer’s budget also calls for increases in the fees for hunting, fishing and boating licenses as well as landfill dumping fees paid by waste haulers. Hunters and anglers are a powerful constituency who have some thoughts on increasing outdoor recreational fees. The waste hauling industry is a well-funded lobbying force and always ready to fight back against its costs of doing business. This is one we’re keeping an eye on.
Taxing fight: There is still a lawsuit hanging in the courts challenging the constitutionality of the new wholesale tax on marijuana that was adopted last year. A marijuana industry group argues the tax violates the terms and intent of the 2018 voter-approved initiative that legalized recreational marijuana in Michigan. The $420 million revenue projection seems a bit whimsical, but if it’s determined the Legislature needed super-majorities to amend a citizen-initiated law that will blow a significant hole in this spending proposal.
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Yours in political nerdiness,
Rick Pluta & Zoe Clark
Co-hosts, It’s Just Politics
