We got a listener question from Liese in Ann Arbor who said Michigan’s tendency toward Swing State status makes her feel “sea-sick”:
“So I've been here [in Michigan] almost 40 years. And I have always been strangely fascinated with the fact, like you never know what's going to happen in the state of Michigan around certain policies or politics. Progressive in some of the policies, conservative in strange ways. Why is that?”
The unbearable political swing of Michigan!
Not all red, not all blue.
Just purple.
Michigan has long been the place you’ll find really strong feelings all along the political spectrum.
Free market auto executives AND union activists. Black Panthers AND Michigan militias. Vietnam veterans AND anti-war hippies. Orville Hubbard AND Malcolm X.
That politically purple tendency also means Michigan is often a bellwether state. Over the past century we’ve nearly always chosen the person who would be president. There’s a couple outlier elections, including when we voted for native son Gerry Ford and the rest of the country chose Jimmy Carter.
But even so, Michigan has ping-ponged between Republican and Democratic interests.
We chose Trump and Obama.
George H.W. Bush and Clinton.
And we cannot forget that THIS is the home of the so-called Reagan Democrat that helped propel Ronald Reagan to a decisive victory as he appealed to union autoworkers who were concerned about the economy.
As Michigan goes, so too goes the country. Right? Except we voted for Al Gore. Who lost.
And John Kerry, who lost.
And it seemed like maybe Michigan was becoming part of a Blue Wall for Democrats…??
And then came Trump, then Biden, then Trump again!
Like Leisa said – it’s enough to make your head spin.
So is there an answer for why we’re like this?
David Dulio, is a political science professor at Oakland University in Oakland County, a purplish county that’s gone through some color changes in the past few decades. He says there are a few things to keep in mind about Michigan’s unpredictability in national politics.
- Many analysts and some Democratic campaigns have taken Michigan for granted because Michigan chose a Democrat for president from 1992 - 2012. That left Democrats vulnerable to a swing toward President Trump.
- There are certain political topics that neither party owns, and a big one is the state of the economy. Michigan voters are very sensitive to issues of the economy, and whichever candidate speaks and performs best on that issue will curry favor in Michigan.
- A key, bellwether demographic in Michigan is educated white women. As a voting bloc, this group has shifted in recent years and been a sign of Michigan’s shifting politics. This is particularly true in crucial counties such as Oakland and Kent.
From Dulio’s perspective, the swingy-ness isn’t nausea inducing. For him, it’s part of the intrigue and fun of political seasons to have national attention and campaigns pour into our state.
“If we were like New York or Oklahoma, what fun would that be?” he said. “There'd be no television ads. There would be no digital ads. We wouldn't be inundated with candidate visits. I mean, we are a competitive state here in Michigan, and that brings so much with it. It's so wonderful.”
