Michigan’s 10th Congressional District is among several races that may determine which party controls Congress after the midterms. That’s why we’re watching it so closely this election season.
Is it really a toss-up?
Michigan's 10th Congressional District is currently represented by Republican John James, who is running for governor, leaving the seat open. The district has leaned Republican in recent elections, with Donald Trump carrying it by six points in 2024, but the race to replace James is now considered a toss-up. Michigan Public’s Steve Carmody covers this in detail here.
Republicans have plenty of reasons to feel good about Michigan's 10th District. Donald Trump carried the district by six points in 2024, and Macomb County, which makes up the majority of the district, has backed Trump in each of the past three presidential elections.
But there's a complication: Trump isn't on the midterm ballot.
And that gets at one of the biggest questions hanging over the race to replace James: Can Republicans turn out the Macomb County GOP voters even when Trump isn't running?
The Trump-era shift of the 10th district
The 10th district is made up of the southern half of Macomb County, along with Rochester and Rochester Hills, part of Oakland County.
In a recent conversation with Stateside, David Dulio, professor of political science and director of the Center for Civic Engagement at Oakland University, said it’s important to remember that Macomb County produced the Reagan Democrats of the 1980s.
These traditionally Democratic, working-class voters crossed party lines to support President Ronald Reagan. According to Dulio, Trump's performance there represents another major shift in the county's politics.
“The last three presidential cycles, Macomb County [was] carried by Donald Trump,” Dulio said. “And that's because I think he has made incredible inroads with working-class, blue-collar voters that are all over the place in southern Macomb County.”
But presidential elections aren't the whole story. Governor Gretchen Whitmer carried Macomb County in both of her gubernatorial campaigns.
To Dulio, that's evidence that the county's Republican shift isn't necessarily complete.
“Until we see a Republican gubernatorial candidate in a midterm year when the president is a Republican carry Macomb County, it's not complete,” Dulio said.
In other words, Macomb has shown it will vote differently depending on who's on the ballot, making an open-seat midterm a particularly interesting test.
What each candidate brings
While neither candidate in the 10th district has previously held office, they both enter the race with something Dulio thinks could matter.
Republican candidate Michael Bouchard Jr., a military veteran and son of the long-time Oakland County sheriff, has both name recognition and his veteran status as a potential advantage.
“For a veteran and in a place like the 10th district, the defense corridor is there and there are a lot of voters that are connected with those corporations as well as military installations, and so I think that that makes a ton of sense,” Dulio said.
On the flip side is Democratic candidate Christina Hines, who two years ago ran for Macomb County Prosecutor, but was ultimately defeated by Pete Lucido. Dulio said her potential advantage is her past campaign experience.
“Her experience in that race and having run countywide, I think, sets her up to have some success because she knows how to run a race,” Dulio said. “She knows that it takes a bunch of money to do so, especially in a place like Macomb.”
The Trump question
So, if both candidates have respective advantages and the 10th District is a toss-up, where does that leave Michigan?
Dulio pointed to two broader factors that political scientists use to understand midterm elections: a president’s approval ratings and the surge-and-decline theory.
Historically, an incumbent president’s approval ratings are actually the best indicator of seat loss by the party.
“By this time, people have maybe become disappointed or frustrated or angry with the president's performance,” Dulio said. “And I think we see that today reflected in those job approval numbers.”
The other factor, the surge-and-decline theory, should make Republicans a bit more nervous about the 10th district. This phenomenon occurs when, during a presidential election, there’s a surge of turnout of supporters, but conversely during a midterm, there’s a big decline.
So, the big question for this race is whether Republicans can get those voters who would typically stay home to turn out and vote. And in a year when control of the U.S. House could come down to a handful of districts, that's what makes Michigan's 10th Congressional District worth watching.
Until next week,
Kalloli Bhatt, Digital Content Producer
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Have questions about Michigan politics? Or, just want to let us know what you want more of (less of?) in the newsletter? We always want to hear from you! Shoot us an email at politics@michiganpublic.org!
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Other political news to watch
- NRDC: Trump administration's fuel economy rollback is "get out of jail free" card for automakers
- SNAP's funding model is starting to change. Here's what that means for the program
- Slotkin says voters should be wary of federal interference in midterms
- Antrim County clerk faces recall over canceled voter registrations
- Michigan US Senate candidates clash over who's better on crime
- Michigan Secretary of State candidates debate election security, voter trust
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Next week on the newsletter
Morning Edition interviews Michigan Supreme Court candidates ahead of the midterms. We’ll bring you all of the interviews (text, audio and visual).
In the meantime, you can read this edition of The Mids on researching judges or this article on how Michigan’s judicial system works.
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Today’s newsletter was written and produced by Kalloli Bhatt, and edited by Michelle Keller.
