The Michigan Democratic and Republican parties have finished their conventions and their final slates of candidates are set. Now the campaign-season sprint toward the general election in November is underway.
There’s a lot to consider in the upcoming election here in Michigan.
Zach Gorchow is the president of Gongwer News Service Michigan. He spoke with Michigan Public's Morning Edition host Doug Tribou about some of the key races in the state and the historical factors that could play a role for the major parties.
Doug Tribou: In the race for governor, Republican Congressman John James is facing Democratic Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. In recent decades, when Michigan voters have chosen a new governor they also flipped the party. We’ve gone Republican, Democrat, Republican, Democrat for several election cycles. What other factors are at play in a race that could be a tight one?
Zach Gorchow: So what's interesting about that trend, and you're absolutely right, the last four times we've had an open seat race for governor, the controlling party of the governor's office has flipped. But unlike in those previous cycles, Jocelyn Benson has the advantage of having the opposite party in the White House. And as we know, in a midterm, the president's party generally does poorly in these elections.
Another factor is... in the past when we've had these open-seat races, many times the economy has been deeply in recession with high unemployment, which adds to kind of a time-for-change movement. And that's not so much the case here in Michigan right now. Unemployment is low.
So these are factors that John James probably would like to have going in his favor. And he doesn't have them this time around.
DT: We’ll also elect a new secretary of state and attorney general. In the secretary of state race, it’s Democrat and current Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist against Republican and current Macomb County Clerk Anthony Forlini. In the attorney general’s race, Republican Eaton County Prosecutor Doug Lloyd will take on Democratic Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit.
And in both races the Green, Libertarian, and U.S. Taxpayer parties are also fielding candidates.
For eight years, the governor, secretary of state, and attorney general have all been Democrats. How likely is it that one party could sweep all three again?
ZG: Again, if you just look at the candidates on paper, the Republicans have some advantages. Tony Forlini is the Macomb County clerk and traditionally, clerk or election expertise is a good launching pad to secretary of state because that's the state's chief election officer.
And in the attorney general race, Eli Savit's been the Washtenaw County prosecutor. And Washtenaw County is the most liberal county in the state. And Eli Savit's taken a number of positions as the prosecutor there that are a little difficult to sell on a statewide basis.
However, in the last four times we've elected attorneys general and secretaries of state, the elections have gone the exact same way as the governor's race, meaning one party has won all three. Michigan voters used to split their tickets a bit in these races. You know, in 1998, Jennifer Granholm, a Democrat, won the attorney general's race even as Republicans won everything else. And in 2002 and 2006, two Republicans, Mike Cox and Terri Lynn Land, won the attorney general and secretary of state races even as Democrats won everything else.
But in the last four elections, one party has won all three races. And I think this may be a good test to see if Michigan voters are still ticket-splitters or not.
DT: One of the big stories of this primary season across the country has been the split in the Democratic party between progressive Democrats and more traditional party members. We saw that in the Michigan U.S. Senate primary when progressive Abdul El-Sayed defeated incumbent Congresswoman Haley Stevens.
When I think about other party fractures over the years, my mind goes to the Republicans and the Tea Party movement. What, if anything, can history tell us about a party’s successes or failures when there’s a high-profile divide?
ZG: In general, if you have a really fractious primary, it's difficult to overcome in the general election. And so that does pose a real challenge for the Democrats. The last time they lost a U.S. Senate race was after a bitterly contested U.S. Senate primary in 1994. But that's a good segue here to what the party's ace in the hole might be, which is the national political environment.
In 1994, it was a huge Republican year. So was it the fractious Democratic primary that caused them to lose that year? Or was it the huge Republican wave nationally? I'd probably say the latter.
This year, right now, it is shaping up to be a huge Democratic year nationally. So the question is, is that enough to help overcome these internal fractures the party is experiencing? And I don't have an answer for that right now, but it will definitely help the Democrats.
DT: The statewide races naturally get a lot of attention, but all of the 148 seats in the Legislature will be decided in the November election, too. What has your attention in the campaigns for state House and Senate?
ZG: Well, I think what we're seeing is some really interesting messaging in these key races. And there's about four key races in the Senate, and I'd say six to eight key races in the House.
Democrats are campaigning on national messages like affordability. They are going to tie Republicans running for the House to a very unpopular president, and they're going to emphasize just how expensive it is to buy the basics.
Republicans, they aren't ignoring the affordability message either, but they are really trying to localize the messaging. They're going to talk about votes they've cast to cut taxes, votes they've cast to cut utility rates. Several of these have not actually become law. They're just things that the House has passed. But that doesn't matter. They're showing, you know, "Hey, look, we're fighting on affordability issues, too."
DT: What else has your interest right now as we head into the full-on push to the general election?
ZG: Well, I'm really curious to see how the parties allocate resources for three or four really key races for Congress. It appears both parties are all in on a very competitive U.S. House seat that's mostly in Macomb County. That's an open seat that John James now holds. And another one that's in West Michigan, where Democrats appear to be ready to make an all-out effort to take out Bill Huizenga, the Republican from Zeeland.
The big question is, what's going to happen with the 50-50 Mid-Michigan congressional seat held by a Republican named Tom Barrett? So far, Democrats have yet to signal that they're going to put big resources into their somewhat surprising nominee, Will Lawrence — former member of the Democratic Socialists of America — who won the primary. But so far they have not made the moves to fund that race yet.
Editor's note: Some quotes in this article have been lightly edited for length and clarity. You can play the full audio of the interview near the top of this page.
